16 March 2013

USD/CAD : False Break Above 1.0204

  • Closed the week at 1.0192, back under the triangle break point (=1.0204, just about). Treat the triangle break as false so go with the reverse trade.
  • Initiated short USD/CAD at 1.0197. Treat with care, the reversal hasn't penetrated sufficiently back into the triangle to make this a high confidence call.
  • Not a good week. Saw the GBP/USD (and general Risk On) squeeze coming and had prepared for it by squaring up half of my shorts ahead. But watched it fail several times near 1.4980 and thought that was it so set re-sell levels too low. Still, 2 actions saved me. 1. Lightening up half risk. 2. Separating risks into Core and Trading made it very clear in my mind what I had to do when things got rough. Immediate action was to cut all the non-core risk and focus only on the 1 position that I feel still has the best long term potential. Result - no emotional stress in spite of being subject to the bear squeeze. Just about still in the money for the month (no small thanks to a few rare positive day trades), still mentally objective, and fighting strong. Could have been so much worse.

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