- Short Cable on basis of daily double top. Back above neckline so stopped out at 1.5828.
- Short Copper while approaching upper edge of daily triangle. Stopped out at 376.90 (given it a bit too much leeway) outside the triangle.
- Both trades were hedges. Guess will have to be brave and go into NFP naked long EUR/USD, S&P and US rates.
- In light of the bearish bigger picture (weekly), will still consider re-establishing both trades if we go back under the cable neckline and copper triangle. [Copper looks the more likely candidate].
- UK 1Q GDP weakish at +0.5% qoq / +1.8% yoy but slightly > expected. Short sterling contracts a bit weaker across.
- FSSZ1 @ 1.21% now vs 3mth Libor @ 0.82%
- Monthly : Still positive.
- Weekly : Possibility of topping action in progress.
- Daily : IF we close today around current levels, it's a confirmed reversal of the uptrend; will negatively impact on the higher time frames.
- Shorting FSS is probably a better hedge for short USD positions than shorting ED.
- Markets back firmly in Risk On, or more accurately, weak USD mode. This remains the true underlying trend and the week's earlier True-Finn-4%-to-19%-driven risk aversion looks to have been a mere shakeout of weak hands.
- Core Book now focused solely on weak USD theme. As Risk On develops, USD/JPY should eventually catch a bid (by no means assured if it's really a weak USD story rather than Risk On). Plan here is to sell into that rally to hedge the rest of the book.
- Monthly : Downtrend line resistance is at 85.70 for Apr11, projected 85.00 May11. That shall be the stop on the short USD/JPY hedge.
- Weekly : Will scale into short from 84.00 upwards. No hedge if we don't get a nice entry level.
- PS : Watch closely USDX when it reaches 74.17 (now 74.48). My guess is we go through easily, by a lot, take out stops, and then come back strongly to confuse further. But trend = down.
- Following last week's post on Straits Times Index possibly turning bearish, the market has pulled back quite strongly today (on rumour China CPI release tomorrow to be better than current expectations) to set up a good short trade location.
- Just sold Feb11 Simsci at 367. Consider it as a hedge for large naked Risk On positions in the rest of the core book.
- Technical setup is same as ST index. 367-370 should be good overhead resistance now on weekly chart. Initial target around 350.
- 1. Gold vs USD 2. Gold vs JPY and GBP 3. Gold vs EUR = 3 different wave structure.
- Gold/USD : 1 straight line up = leader of the pack in QE2.
- vs GBP and JPY : recent wave up but not taken out the mid 2010 highs yet.
- vs EUR : ECB reckoned to be least likely candidate for QE2, thus consolidation pattern whilst the other 3 charts going up.
- Watch the consolidation resistance line in XAU/EUR at 977. Currently at 970, this has been creeping up. Reckon time to go outright short EUR/USD (or long XAU/EUR if conservative), will be when 977 gets taken out.
- 62% Fibonacci retracement of the big EUR/USD collapse from 1.5144 to 1.1875 is nearby at 1.3895. Strictly speaking, other than for portfolio hedging, there really is no technical reason to be selling EUR/USD yet.
Insurance against Risk Off but instead we had USD Up post NFP data- Blew through stop at 96.00. Out
- Despite rally, chart does not have bullish look about it (especially monthly). Neutral
- Was early calling for down move last week. 2nd chance now.
- Daily - bear flag. Close below 94.63 would be nice for bears. Or better yet, below 94.47 = Friday's low.
- Monthly and Weekly - clear. Down
- Abort close > 96.00
- Tide and Wave down
- Been waiting for Ripple to turn back down. Close below 94.63 should do it (last 94.55)
- Protection for Risk Appetite collapse (dampens P&L volatility of long Risk Core Book)
