AUD/USD : Close to A Sell

• Monthly and Weekly : Trend change long confirmed. Wide band of resistance now between 0.9386 and 0.9581; too wide to be of practical use in formulating strategy though. Look to the daily.
• Daily : Perhaps first entry attempt should be to try and sell as close to 0.9355 as possible with stop close above. (now trading at 0.9248).

Core Book : Gone Horribly Wrong

• Short Copper vs Long AUD/USD. Well and truly fuxxed by RBA rate cut. AUD lower, Copper higher, spread bleeding.
• Reduced the Copper short around 317. Still holding on to some.
• AUD/USD weekly chart looks like nearing support levels, so reluctant to cut loss here as well. Unlike some people out there, I do not see an AUD collapse anytime soon. Range bound.
• Markets can make time and/or price consolidation. Reckon USD/JPY doing time consolidation above 97.50 (a cooling off period if you will, after recent sharp moves). Push higher to come still.

Filling in the Blanks

Back in Singapore.

Only trade done while away - rolled short May Copper into July at a spread of +1.10 ie equivalent HGN3 historical in-price is at -335.30.

Both spread trades (short copper vs long AUD/USD and long USD/JPY) working out nicely (see screenshot). No new ideas to present here yet, except that my GTC pyramid order to sell more Copper is close to being triggered now. Might think about buying more USD/JPY soon.

Core Book + Copper : My Thinking

• Core book running 2 strategies - 1. -Copper vs +AUD/-USD and 2. +USD/-JPY.
• 1. -Copper/+AUD : Copper chart = down, AUD chart = up. Idea behind spread is to dampen volatility from China and/or Risk On/Off and let the charts do the heavy lifting. Worked like a dream as seen from reaction to weaker than China 1Q13 GDP data today - Copper -2% and AUD -0.6%.
• 2. Long USD/JPY : (under)-committed at +99.16. Plan is to buy more on very big drop, or if not, wait for break of 100.00 to add on (preferred). Thus far, dip to 97.56 not sufficient to get me to buy more. Will sit through this. Unlike the previous time (short at 93.30, against the trend, panic stations after BOJ meeting), am much more relaxed about this setback because position is with the trend.
• Copper technicals : New lows being made. Note big technical level on monthly chart at 330 (NL of SHS top) being challenged now. GTC sell stop-in at 329.80 triggered here so risk increased to max now.

AUD/USD : Weekly Triangle

• Stop-in buy order at +1.0520 triggered. Long now.
• Massive triangle on weekly chart being tested now. Buying appears to be lacking real momentum though. Still, I have let my order get filled first in about half of my intended size, and do the rest later if it works (ie confirmed close outside triangle).

AUD/USD : Pre-Trade

• Possible good trade coming.
• Upper edge of 1-1/2 year triangle on weekly chart is now nearby at 1.0520 (current 1.0470).
• Be patient. Don't pre-position (tiring, by the time the real break comes you are exhausted). WAIT FOR THE BREAK. 
• GTC buy stop-in > +1.0520.
• If engaged, this will be good portfolio inclusion against short copper and cable. Perfect! Never mind the Risk On/Off inconsistency.

AUD/USD : Messy Charts

• Short AUD/USD at 1.0553 on basis that it was trading near top of range, and desirable hedge against Risk On book.
• Trade is working, now at 1.0475. BUT that's it. I am now just waiting for a decent level, perhaps near 1.0400, to take profit and close this. Stop moved lower to ensure I do not end up losing money.
• Weekly and Daily charts are too messy to try to make more of this. Consider this a bonus, got lucky with very flimsy and weak ex-system entry criteria. 

AUD/USD : Short @ 1.0553

• Core book skewed towards Risk On here (+EUR/USD, +ESH3).
• Assumption : AUD/USD 1.0550-1.0600 is towards top side of trading range.
• Hedge : Gone short AUD/USD @ 1.0553 / Stop above 1.0624. Balance out my risk a little.

AUD/USD : Lost Interest

• This had potential to be a real biggie just last week. Monthly triangle breakout, weekly and daily periscope rally pointing to much higher targets. All that's lost now.
• Was long at 1.0588, then cut loss at 1.0550, but was still hoping that buy stop-in above at new highs would be triggered to get me long. Today's weak price action has probably taken us too far below to continue hoping for a real trending up leg.
• 1.0550-1.0600 now looks like the upper levels of a big trading range. No trend, stay out. Boring.
• Upside break not going to happen on this watch.
• Addendum 18Jan12 1:30 pm : If this is at the upper end of its range, it might be worthwhile considering running a short position here against my core long USD/JPY and EUR/USD. We'll see. Perhaps near to 1.0600.

AUD/USD : Long @ 1.0588

• Monthly : In the process of breaking out of a triangle within an uptrend.
• Weekly and Daily : Clearing the upper bodies of recent candlesticks, although the spike highs have yet to be overcome. The critical high we need to take out is 1.0623.
• Trade : Initiated long @ 1.0588. Add to this on break of 1.0623.

Shanghai Composite : 不好了! 不好了!

• In process of breaking down key 2320 support level.
• Proxy trades : Sell Copper and AUD/USD.

Copper Leading AUD/USD

• Compare the marked red circles on the Copper chart and the AUD/USD charts here. The 2 charts look very similar qualitatively.
• Looks to me that AUD is in the early stages of breaking down whilst Copper has already gone ahead.
• Switched half of my short Copper risk into short AUD/USD in the past 2 trading sessions. The latter has much more downside potential than the former now.

AUD/USD : Yet Another Bear

• One of many on the sell-off train.
• Monthly : Almost certainly to close below uptrend line (at 0.9897) and support at 0.9849 for Sep11 month end = sell signals.
• Weekly : Already double top formed = trend reversal. Going to close below significant support at 0.9924 as well = yet another sell signal.
• Short rates around 4.75% so negative carry is more than most other pairs, hence has interest rate support. But when downside momentum takes hold, the talk will turn to how much room AUD rates has to fall vs others. Cuts both ways.

AUD/USD : Buy Stop-in Above 1.0756

• Gone nowhere fast since long initiated at average in-rate of 1.0670 (but positive carry of appx 10 pips per week).
• Monthly and weekly charts have not changed too much in outlook since then. Both still uptrend. Recent weakness just a temporary wobble in the big scheme of things.
• Action plan from daily chart : If we can get to and close above 1.0756, the chart would have potential for a new impulsive upleg. Thus, buy stop-in placed accordingly. Cannot rush this until we get the break.

AUD/USD : Long at 1.0693

• Like Gold, I have been waiting to buy AUD/USD since Risk Off took hold on 05May (when Trichet failed to mention "strong vigilance" in his ECB press conference).
• The sell-off looks to be about done now, so I have just initiated a long position here.
• Monthly : Strong uptrend.
• Weekly :  Same as monthly.
• Daily : Looks like a strong base above 1.05 has now been formed. Uptrend should now resume.

AUD/JPY : Cut AUD/USD leg

• Shorted AUD/JPY at 81.99 on Tuesday. Another trade not working. Now at 82.77, which is where it was before Fukushima events.
• Just cut the short AUD/USD of the cross at 1.0218. See daily chart - taken out all topside resistance. Not good.
• Looks like we are in for another bout of Risk On.
• Mulling my USD/JPY short now. Likely I will leave it. Entire book is very much positioned Risk On so not critical to get rid of this anytime soon.
• Question : If Risk On, what happens to Bunds/UST10yr spread? Any ideas?

AUD/USD : Scratch

• Long at average rate 1.0154 at end of Feb on basis of weekly and daily triangle breakout.
• Just scratched trade. Sitting right on original triangle edge on daily chart after having whipped around a few times.
• I do not normally lose patience with a trade in this manner. As a rule, I accept higher incidences of Type 2 errors (bad trade exited late) to benefit from less type 1 errors (good trades exited early). However, in this case, I am squaring up to remove any baggage for a short AUD/JPY trade that I am stalking (see next post).
  

AUD/USD : Stopped-in Long @ 1.0169

• This was still not done at 4 am this morning when I woke up to execute the USD/CAD. Order must have been filled right near the close of NY trading.
• Only partially successful at reducing core book risk this week. Fresh signals in CAD+AUD means that I ended the week re-building some risk. So overall, still quite engaged.
• AUD/USD weekly and daily triangle break out now. Technical upside objective is around 1.0600 vs week''s close at 1.0180 (ie around +4%).
• Next action point : Break of 1.0253 previous high.

AUD/USD : Forming Weekly Triangle

• Sold off from recent high of 1.0159 to low of 0.9963 in general Risk Off environment driven by Libya + NZ earthquake of the last 3 sessions.
• Monthly : Still an uptrend.
• Weekly and Daily : Triangle being formed. Upside boundary is at 1.0169. Buy stop-in on break above 1.0169. (Now at 1.0067).

AUD/USD : Fresh Buy Signal > 0.9849

• Am torn here between a desire to reduce risks now and make sure I have a decent positive year, or following my system and milk current trends for all their worth.
• This whole year has been a struggle. Blew up in Jan10, and every single month end since then I have been staring at a negative YTD number. Only just turned positive last month (saved by Fed/QE2 on 21Sep10) and this month so far has returned a big bonus to bring YTD to a decent level. I so do not want to cock  this up again.
• AUD/USD today has just taken out a very significant high at 0.9849. If I am not wrong, the last time we were here was in 1983. So strictly speaking, I should begin to build up a big long position in AUD/USD again, having taken profits below here just yesterday and today.
• I think I shall do that. But will have to reduce risk elsewhere first.
• Go in again. New parameters. New mentality. But watch downside, not upside. The year is almost over. No time to recover from any new setback. I want to be paying income tax next year.