Chart Comparison : WTI vs Copper

Appears early days yet for Copper.

Brent : Fresh Long Jul11 @ 111.13

• Cannot understand why crude is not much higher given fears of safety of nuclear energy + Bahrain events. Guess is because of deflationary fears associated with Japan disaster.
• No matter. Logic is irrelevant. The charts tell the underlying story. It is not important to understand the underlying fundamentals.
• Monthly : Uptrend.
• Weekly : Currentt pull-back good for the long term health of the uptrend. 107.35 looks to be a good spike tail (ie rejected by market as being too cheap).
• Daily : Interpret as base building around 108. Buy dips.
• Trade : Gone tiny long Jul11 Brent at 111.13. Paying at a few levels down to 108.

Brent Crude : Trading Mistake

• Long at 103 .. out around 110. Completely misjudged how far and how quickly this can run.
• I feel fear when I see exponential curve price action such as this, even if I am on the correct side. Bad mistake.
• Lesson for future .. OK to take profit but retain at least 1 contract on a trailing stop/reversal out basis. Missed the meat of this move by taking profit much too early.

ECB Trichet comments post G20 Paris Meeting

"The price of energy and commodities is something we are looking at very very carefully with a view to avoid second-round effects, to avoid that price increases could be enshrined in inflation in the medium term. We are responsible for preserving stability in the medium term. No second-round effect is our moto. Inflationary pressures coming from the price of oil, energy and commodities are to be taken seriously."

Brent Crude : Initiated Long 101.93

• Virgin IPE trade. New long at 101.93 (Apr11).
• Monthly and weekly charts in uptrend. Here as good a place as any to get on board.

Crude Benchmark : Switch from WTI to Brent

• Thanks to reader XP for pushing me to switch trading from Nymex WTI to ICE Brent. 
• Brent is now commonly accepted as a better benchmark for crude oil but I have been dragging my feet in making the switch due to the work involved (not much) in setting up a new product on my system. Process set in motion now.
• Only just started looking at the Brent chart. Realized that I have missed out big time due to my sloth. If I had made the switch earlier, I would now be sitting pretty on long Brent instead of sweating my underwater WTI position.
• Charts : LHS = Brent (clear bull). RHS = WTI (in danger of getting stopped out).

• Open interest and volume figures in 2nd inset. Very comparable. Both contracts = 1000 barrels. So Brent is to all intents and purposes, same as the WTI contract. (If someone reading this knows otherwise, please let me know. Thanks).

Crude Oil : Watch 87.15

• China rate hike announcement triggered short term panic reaction in commodities tonight (+no bad news out of Egypt last couple of days). Mar11 Crude low 85.85, but is now back above 88.
• On weekly and monthly charts, 87.15 is a key level. As long as the lead contract does not close below, read this to be in an uptrend still. Managed to rebound (leaving a spike low on chart)  the previous time we broke below temporarily. Today as well.
• Hanging precariously to smelly long position here.

A Few Risk On Charts

• Compilation of charts of Risk On which is the recent theme here. Standout omission is AUD, as I do not have the long trade on board.
• If forced to rank the 4, most bullish = Copper. Nothing to choose between the other 3, all equally good. Therefore, first order of business in 2011 - looking for dip to increase long HGH1.

Crude : Monthly Upside Breakout

• Monthly chart self explanatory.
• Yet another Risk ON indicator.
• My preference for expressing Risk On : AUD+CAD+Commodities+Equities, NOT the old EUR GBP etc. Hedge with long TY (positive carry) near 3.50%. Sit on Core; trade the Hedge.

Crude Oil : Warning for Growth Outlook?

• Crude at 74.30 now. Trade below 78.70 = break of monthly and weekly UpTLs.
• Taken together with weakness in Copper, lower US10YYs, ongoing problems in Europe (+austerity measures, fiscal tightening), China tightening, etc etc, am wondering if one should turn cautious about positive growth outlook.
• If so, there are significant implications for equities. Got to try to find ways to protect the short S&P position and give it every chance to work. Thinking there should be an attempt at last Thurs' spike low at 1069 at the very least (vs 1167 now).
• This is the time to be very vigilant on those sell stop-ins below the market. Because when the turn comes it would be almost impossible to jump on board if one is not mentally prepared.

AUD/JPY and Crude Oil = Risk Proxy Twins

• Triple top both invalidated at same time. 
• Weekly charts identical.
• Fresh round of Risk On after improvement in NFP? (= Buy JPY crosses, Buy Base Metals, Not clear about US Equities. Weak JPY good for Nikkei).

Crude Oil : Abort Triple Top

• Was looking at a possible triple top on the weekly chart here.
• Market has pushed through the top of that pattern now. Last at 85.10.
• Just as well did not try to pick a top here.
• This is now a buy around 84.

Crude Oil : Still Possible Triple Top

• Still watching the weekly for possible triple top.
• As per S&P, Copper, Soybean, etc, monthly is positive or inconclusive for bear case.
• Thus conflicting views on the 2 timeframes. No trade. 
• Prefer to wait for the triple top NL to be penetrated before considering a trade. Will be late but surer and stops can be tighter. Better than being early and constantly getting stopped out (eg S&P). Very tiring that way.

AUD/JPY vs Crude : Identical Charts! Weekly Triple Top

Crude Oil : Weekly Triple Top ?

• Half-hearted attempt to short this earlier in the month (-81.95, +82.50) ended when things got rough elsewhere. Revisiting.
• Triple top on weekly chart still possible.
• Will try to sell against 83.95 stop. Last at 81.55.
• In calling tops and bottoms, will only attempt in tiny size.

Crude Oil : Potential Triple Top on Weekly

• Looking out for possible Triple Top in Crude around $82.
• High traded 83.95 in Jan10.
• Perhaps a sell around 82 or thereabouts with a stop above 84.
• Addendum 10Mar10 12:40 am : Limit sell CLK0 @ 81.90 filled. 
• Addendum 12Mar10 5:05 pm : Cut loss @ 82.55. Waste of time trade.

Crude Oil : Cut Loss @ 80.40

• Another one bites the dust. Trade back below breakout point 82 not good.
• Not much going right with game plan at the moment.
  

Crude Oil : Initiated Long @ 82.40

• Monthly : Current trend = Up.
• Weekly : Break of 82 = Buy signal.
• Daily : As per weekly.
  
• Abort trade if we fail to close above 82 this week.
  

Crude Oil : Short @ 75

• Weekly UpTL broken at 75.19. Made low of 68.59 and now in process of pulling back towards the old UpTL.
• Fresh short in at 75.025 (CLG0).

Crude Oil : Monthly Up Trendline Break

• Another venue of expression for the higher USD trade.
• Monthly : Broken UpTL support at 75, which is also a significant previous top.
• Weekly : Turning lower.
• Daily : Down.
• There is still only 1 trade out there .. USD up or down?