Away 22Jun12 - 03Jul12

Away for the big figure change to 5. No access to blog at all during this time. Good luck and happy trading meanwhile.

Risk Off : Conviction Held

• Bad run of late, mostly getting whipped on Risk Off positions. Trimmed down to much reduced risk levels last Friday and have not traded since, until today (re-established stopped out GBP/USD at 1.5695 and 1.5659).
• Plan is to retain a small core position given strong Risk Off conviction, and sit through the volatility until trades start to perform (in an accelerated manner). Will be less costly this way, rather than getting stopped out repeatedly on larger risk positions whilst markets are dicking around.
• Eg Risk Off indicator : Cable monthly triangle (=continuation with immense downside potential). Whilst initial downside break has not worked, I am prepared to give this a lot of more time to perform, but protect myself via tight control on trade size.
• This will be my last post for a while.

Best iOS App Ever : PPTV

Singapore Law : WTF ?

Double standards. Same offense different punishment. (6 month jail vs SGD 1,000 fine). Does a mere "sales executive" deserve a heavier punishment than a "well known plastic surgeon"? Do our judges have that much discretion in sentencing? Did the law change so much between 2005 and 2008?

Dominic Sandbrook : Seasons in the Sun

Seasons in the Sun : The Battle for Britain, 1974-79 by Dominic Sandbrook. (1180 pages on my iPad font size setting). Telegraph review here.

Streets of London 1978/79

Excellent narrative history of the UK for those years. Particularly interesting for me as I was living in the UK during the latter part of that period. Reading this is like re-living part of my life, only with a lot more clarity and understanding of the events of the time (eg new found respect for Denis Healey after reading Ch 21). Lots of references to the pop groups (and some football+movies too) of the era, which I like reading about.

Author has written a whole series of books on UK history of recent years. "Never Had It So Good : A History of Britain from Suez to the Beatles 1956-63" now on my ever growing reading list.

My Rating : 5/5

S&P500 : Short @ 1316

• Caught off-side by Spain EUR 100 bio bailout. Trade size too large and received margin call with the large gap up in EUR/USD open for the week. Cut the entire position at 1.2622 and did not have the mental fortitude to get back in when it was apparent later in the day that the market had topped out.
• Did however, sell S&P at 1316 to re-establish some Risk Off exposure.
• Trading badly of late. Too many "almost but not quite" trades. Solution : Trade smaller, stay longer.

Christopher Balding : The Different SWFs

Article here.

How Bad is SingTel ? Very Very Poor Indeed.

Watching Starhub coverage of Euro 2012 on my cable TV and also tested that Starhub delivery of same via web browsers on mobile devices like iPhone and iPad. Everything works like a dream. No excuses about Flash constraints, set-top reboots, etc.

Excellent Starhub. Grade A+. "In tune with customer needs".

Euro 2012 on iPad via Starhub - very smooth

Contrast this with SingTel delivery of EPL and CL the past 2 seasons. Long time readers of this blog will remember my bitter complaints about SingTel streaming lags and regular breakdown in broadcast. Complained till the cows come home via email, phone, public shaming (Facebook, blog) and yet completely ignored by SingTel. 2 years later it is obvious that problems have not been adequately addressed eg see here. Too many people viewing and switching channels causing system freezes. What crap excuse.

My EPL/CL delivery from SingTel comes via their mio Stadium (=via internet) service. Consider how important the Apple iOS platform has grown in the last few years. Any company in tune with the market place would by now have adapted to deliver on the most popular platform around. And yet, try watching EPL on mio Stadium in iOS and you still get a blank white space where the screen is supposed to show up :=

mio Stadium on iOS - blank white space

And here's what you get when you try to watch match clips on SingTel's BPL App (designed for Apple iOS and yet has never ever worked from day 1 over 2 years ago). I have also never undestood why the App requires WiFi to be turned off and to run on 3G only? Is that so that users then chalk up 3G usage which is chargeable? If so, that is so low class and cheap of SingTel. (Anyway, the App still doesn't work if you turn off WiFi).

SingTel BPL App - match clips don't work on iOS

Crap Singtel. Grade F-. "Don't know, don't want to know, don't care".

Much like another Singapore Govt linked company - SMRT. Save and stinge on maintenance, fail to keep up to date with changes (in population and ridership) in their marketplace, emphasis on upfront short term delivery at expense of longer term health. Now a laughing stock of the world. Ditto PUB and flooding.

Same for PAP Government. Bring in FTs to boost short term output at expense of long term decline in quality of life in country. Clueless what low regard the common folk has for them. Lost touch with the common ground. I reckon watershed Singapore 2016 elections at the rate the PAP is going.

Stopped complaining about SingTel here not because problems solved but because I give up on them. Seeing how well everything works on Starhub tonight has just reminded me of how it should be.

USDX : Still Healthy

• Made a low of 81.96 yesterday pre-Bernanke disappointing QE3 hopes, from where we have bounced strongly. Now back up trading at 82.68.
• Upside breakout point = 82.06 still holding.
• As long as we hold above 82.06 on weekly closing basis, Risk Off is still the favored trading stance. The Risk On rally of the last few days = just a shakeout of weak Risk Off hands.
• Trimmed 50% of risk (took off short S&P) but re-established some last night via short Corn. Up to 80% exposure now.
• P&L now = small down on month, by roughly what would have been the amount of USD/JPY P had I not foolishly lifted the hedge.

Corn : Ongoing Saga

• Recap : Tues - Initiated short ZCN2 @ 573; Wed - cut loss @ 583.5
• Risk rally now taken this back to the resistance line on the weekly chart at 596.
• Thurs - today just sold again at 595.5.

Michael Lewis' Speech

• Michael Lewis is one of my favorite authors since "Liar's Poker" all those years ago as a trainee dealer in UBS.
• Always eagerly anticipating his next book. In the meanwhile, here's the next best thing, a recent speech he made at Princeton University.
• "Above all, recognize that if you have had success, you have also had luck — and with  luck comes obligation. You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods. You owe a debt to the unlucky."

USD/JPY : Costly Mistake

• P&L setback the past 2 days.
• Was long USD/JPY as hedge against rest of Core Book which was Risk Off. Took off the hedge at 78.33. Reason - got greedy because wanted more naked exposure to Risk Off which was rewarding me handsomely.
• Cutting loss on the hedge was big mistake. I should have known better. Threat of BOJ intervention + Japan does not need stronger JPY = Hedge loses some money when rest of Risk Off is doing well + Hedge makes back alot more when Risk Off is suffering.
• Also stopped out short S&P and Corn yesterday to reduce Risk Off exposure. Protect what I have left. 
• Lesson : 1 tinker too many.

Corn : Try Again - Short

• My previous attempts to short this were whipped in the 600-650 range.
• Weekly and monthly charts trading clearly below downside support and looks an even more attractive short than before, more certain bearish pattern now.
• Initiated short July Corn at 572.75. Plan to add if we get near 600. I am looking for this to trade below 500.

Fortune : The last days of MF Global

Link.

Jdrama : Nankyoku Tairiku 南极大陆

Taro and Jiro at the rear of the pack

• I like dogs. I like Takuya Kimura. I like watching inspirational dramas based on true life events. This here ticks all my boxes. +Bonus = Show with no bad guys.
• Feb 1957 : Japan's first expedition to the South Pole.  Base station built and 11 men and 15 Sakhalin Huskies were left behind for research purposes.
• Feb 1958 : 2nd expedition sent to take over but unable to get close to the base due to extreme weather conditions. 1st team evacuated by air. Thinking that the 2nd team would make it to the base soon, the 15 sled dogs were chained with 1 week's supply of food. Unfortunately, the dogs had to be abandoned and the entire crew returned to Japan to face public criticism.
• 14 Jan 1959 : A year later, 3rd expedition team arrived at the base to find 7 had dogs died still chained. The others had broken free; of which only Taro and Jiro had managed to survive to greet the team.
• Jiro died during the 5th expedition in 1960. Taro lived on till 1970 at Hokkaido University. They were the youngest of the original team of dogs (1-4 years old).
• Watch Episode 7 here (does not work on iOS). This is where the dogs get left behind and the series really take off from here. Guaranteed to make you cry. 10 episodes of 1 hour each.
• This is how nation-building is done. Not the current rage of blaming FTs (foreigners) for every single thing that is wrong with our country. Too much already.

Very Sad Letter

Son of a friend was killed in a cycling accident last week. He was only 25 years old. Came across this (A Letter to Jude) written by the boy's friend which made me cry hard. Heart breaking.

I am so sorry for your loss, Dom.

S&P500 : Get Serious Short

• Initial trades : Sold ESM2 @ 1328 and 1321. 
• Post NFP : Sell stop triggered at 1284.5. Added on at 1288.
• Average in short at 1305. Trade status upgraded from tentative to serious.
• Close below 1290 last Friday = bad sign. Original stop >1350 can now be tightened to just >1300, so have worked into a reasonably sized short (31%) that is at worst breakeven now.
• Direction down is clear to me. Worry now is whether we go back up to form a right shoulder around 1350/1374 before the big bear; I would prefer straight down but of course, it's never ever so easy (eg wall of money, QE3, etc).

Kobo Touch eReader Dead

• 95% of my book reading is done on my Kobo Touch. Reading experience is far superior on an e-ink device than an actual book (no search, font customization, no multiple books on single device, etc) or an iPad (too heavy) or iPhone (screen too small).
• Unfortunately, the touchscreen on my device is now completely dead so I am unable to navigate beyond the initial settings page. My suspicion is damage caused by airport security scanner. So the next e-ink device I get, I will not bring it with me when I travel (warning!).
• Google search says not likely security scanner radiation levels high enough to cause damage but I can't think of anything that I have done differently in recent days. Brought it with me to Shanghai but didn't use it at all after I left home in Spore, and was dead when I tried to turn it on for the first time after I got back. Go figure.
• Trying to get replacement unit from Kobo. Failing which, the Simple Touch with Glowlight by B&N sounds just perfect.

Karen Mok 莫文尉 : 双城故事

Listen to the original 1980 Cantonese version of the song here (titled 冷雨, by 钱钱) on an album titled 6 pair 半 which I absolutely loved back then. The other really good song on the album is 天各一方.

Also watch on for Karen Mok interview by 小燕姐 after end of above MV.

Gold : Close Shave

• Was short Gold but lost patience given slow downside progress so squared at 1566 and utilized the equivalent risk limits elsewhere instead (shorting EUR/USD at 1.2380 and covered at 1.2333+1.2290). Just in nick of time.
• Weekly : Re-entered the triangle so back to consolidation play ie can' t touch this (for trend seekers).

GBP/USD : Fresh Short @ 1.5325

• No you can't keep a good risk down. Trying to reduce core risk off but new signal in GBP/USD move below 1.5320 = preliminary attempt to break monthly triangle,has forced me to step up again. Just as well I took some profits in EUR/USD at 1.2333 earlier. 
• This break attempt has happened a lot earlier than I had anticipated.
• I definitely want to play this. Fresh position initiated in shorting cable at 1.5325, imminent NFP release nothwithstanding.

Core Book: Massaging Ahead of NFP Later

Made some modifications to Core Book the past 2 days, in view of NFP release later. Taken some profits in short EUR/USD at 1.2333 this morning + increased the size of the long USD/JPY hedge. Given how far Risk Off has run the past few days, I am worried about possibility of a strong snap-back (regardless of what the number is, markets will do what they want to do using the event as an excuse).

Core Book trading limits are fully used, with risk allocation as follows :=
Risk Off (73%) - short EUR/USD (26%), short S&P (17%) and short Copper (30%)
Risk On (27%) - long USD/JPY (27%)

Assuming hedge relationship is effective, then naked Risk Off exposure going into the number is 46% only versus 66% 2 days ago. A 20% swing may not sound like much but in practice it can make a world of difference in holding power and capital preservation.

Cool Use of iPad : Stream Movies and Watch on Big TV

Digital AV Adapter from Apple

Connect iPad to TV via HDMI

Apps to stream movies onto iPad

Watch/mirror on big screen.

Perfect for PPTV App.

Trades Done 31May12

• 1. Covered short Gold at 1564 average. Downside has been disappointingly lame recently.
• Replaced 1. by  2. Sold July Copper at 338 and 3. Sold EUR/USD at 1.2380.
• 4. Increased USD/JPY hedge at 78.44.
• Overall Risk On still maxed out. Same number of eggs, fewer baskets but fuller.