01 April 2011

US10YY : Initiated Long TYM1 @ 118-13

  • NFP +216k, UR 8.8%, the former slightly better than expectations.
  • USD getting a boost from indication of better labor market. Suffering a bit here on core positions - long commodities and short USD vs various. But expect market focus to turn squarely towards ECB Apr07 meeting when dust settles tonight.
  • Reckon market has swung away from under-pricing path towards higher rates to perhaps getting a little carried away on Bernanke Fed raising rates.
  • Have thus bought back all EDZ1 short at 9930 and also gone long TYM1 @ 118-13 (=3.51%) for positive carry. Happy to run the core positions naked. Am braced for some hairy moments ahead though. Would not wish to see US10YY take out 3.57% on the upside.


Taichiseal said...

Taken partial profits @ 118-28

Andrew said...

Good trade. For whatever reason that I cannot fathom... I was worried about a hawkish Dudley. Missed the trade up.

Taichiseal said...

Out balance at 118-30.5.

Best of luck in NY, Andrew.