01 April 2011

USD/CAD : Downtrend Continues

  • Previous low of 0.9664 taken out tonight. Did not sell on break as per usual practice given sizable short already. The fact that I did not do anything probably means that this break will be for real and we will not see the kind of violent pull-back such as we have seen in Gold recently. ie no chance to sell at good levels.
  • Monthly : Mar11's candle (pseudo-hammer) encouraging for bears. Tried to rally intra-month but unsuccessful. Apr11 start has extended the downside to territory untouched since 4Q07. This chart looks ominous. 94 easy.
  • Weekly and Daily : Fresh down leg.
  • Sitting tight on core short. Will not take profit anytime soon.
  • Aside : Price action on FX tonight indicates to me that squeeze on USD shorts probably done for now. (USD buying post NFP has a climax feel to me). Am expecting USD to trade lower and Commodities to go up from here.

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