16 January 2015

UST 10 Year Note : Bear Squeeze

  • Short USTs is one of the most over-crowded trade for some time already. Incredible, but not surprising therefore, that we have taken out the 15Oct14 spike top (Ebola fears, good inflation and weak data) and holding above that level comfortably.
  • [Markets in turmoil due to SNB peg removal shocker, buy USD, buy USTs, buy Gold, buy JPY]
  • Having to overcome a huge mental block to buy here; but certainly am saving myself a lot of heartache by not even thinking of any kind of short attempt.
  • Looks like front TY contract can test 135-1/2. [Monthly periscope breakout]
  • [The other over-crowded trade being long USD but that is more grounded on relative fundamentals than the long bond trade].


Taichiseal said...

Paid +130-24/32 for ZNH5

Taichiseal said...

Stopped out -129-30/32. So much for that breakout.