29 May 2013

US10YT : Turned/Turning

  • Thus far, I have expressed my "US is best" view via FX (excellent results) and Gold (+ve, but so so performance). This has been correct as relative economic performance clearly favors the US. But perhaps it's now time to ditch relative strength and focus on US absolute performance. Thus, am mulling diversifying the same view into the Rates markets.
  • ZNc1 chart : looks like the battle-ship has almost completed its about turn. Taken a year, with many whipsaws in the process. The carry traders have probably had their time. If so, it's the turn of the trend traders who are not crippled by the inertia of negative carry considerations. Watch for a strong close below the bold blue line on the chart for sell signal.
  • Rates are probably the best trending instruments around. Once it starts and you catch it right, the money simply will not stop rolling in.
  • Unlike 1994, this time round the market will lead the Fed. Back then, the bond bear was due to Greenspan catching the market by surprise. This time, it will be due to markets punishing the Bernanke Fed's over-staying QE ad nauseum. Thoughts that "the Fed won't do anything yet" are dangerous. Banish them.
  • Trade : Initiated tiny short ZNU3 -129-19. GTC sell orders nearby above to add on to a decent risk level. If the orders above do not get filled and we get a weak close, hit the market then. EDZ5 GTC sell stop-in order placed 2 months ago nearing fill as well.