12 March 2013

USD/CAD : Waiting for Failed Signal

  • Oftentimes, a failed technical signal makes a very good signal for a trade in the reverse direction.
  • On watch for the possibility of such a failure now in USD/CAD. Broke out of a triangle consolidation at 1.0220, ran as high at 1.0340 but then lost steam altogether. Pullback to 1.0250 now.
  • The old triangle support line is now at 1.0204. A re-entry below would be a sell signal. A bounce, on the other hand, = buy signal after successful test of breakout point.
  • Aside : Triangles are meant to be continuation patterns. The main trend for USD/CAD is down. Thus the upside break was kind of a strange signal in the first place, which is why I didn't go all out betting on it (unlike JPY and GBP).
  • Trade : Sell stop-in < 1.0204. This is one where I definitely have to WAIT for the re-entry. Jumping the gun on this has strong potential to make one look really silly later.

1 comment:

Taichiseal said...

Looks almost certain NY close to be < 1.0204, back below triangle support line, invalidating breakout.

Sold -1.0197.