02 February 2013

EUR & JPY : A Tale of Two ISHS

  • Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY inverse SHS broke to the upside at the same time (red and blue circles on charts = breakout points = 10Dec12).
  • USD/JPY : Reached its objective at 92.54 last night. Closed the week at 92.75, >objective. It no longer makes sense to go long blindly although I would not necessarily want to go short (did try at -92.55, stopped out at +92.80) either. Extreme caution warranted. I would prefer to be square and watch for new clues.
  • EUR/USD : On balance, perhaps the healthier trade because skeptics abound on its  logic. At every level (we saw a lot of that between 1.3000 and 1.3250) people question the sustainability of a strong EUR, which means that there will always be someone shorting and cutting loss higher, thus adding fuel to the uptrend. Immediately, I would prioritize building up more risk here, for the inexorable march towards 1.4267.
  • Note : Parabolic rises like USD/JPY will always be subject to great risk of an equally vicious snapback. No trade is ever a no-brainer. There is no free lunch. Just ask anyone who bought AAPL in 2H12.

4 comments:

Taichiseal said...

+1.3647

Taichiseal said...

Stopped out -1.3577

Don C said...

So...from this point on, go with Andy Xie or Carl Weinberg ?

Btw, congrats on taking 8 big figures in the USD/JPY and hitting it way out of the park in Jan. Phenomenal.
:)

Taichiseal said...

Thanks Don.

No idea. Read them to know both sides of the story. Trade with charts only.