02 February 2013

EUR & JPY : A Tale of Two ISHS

  • Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY inverse SHS broke to the upside at the same time (red and blue circles on charts = breakout points = 10Dec12).
  • USD/JPY : Reached its objective at 92.54 last night. Closed the week at 92.75, >objective. It no longer makes sense to go long blindly although I would not necessarily want to go short (did try at -92.55, stopped out at +92.80) either. Extreme caution warranted. I would prefer to be square and watch for new clues.
  • EUR/USD : On balance, perhaps the healthier trade because skeptics abound on its  logic. At every level (we saw a lot of that between 1.3000 and 1.3250) people question the sustainability of a strong EUR, which means that there will always be someone shorting and cutting loss higher, thus adding fuel to the uptrend. Immediately, I would prioritize building up more risk here, for the inexorable march towards 1.4267.
  • Note : Parabolic rises like USD/JPY will always be subject to great risk of an equally vicious snapback. No trade is ever a no-brainer. There is no free lunch. Just ask anyone who bought AAPL in 2H12.


Taichiseal said...


Taichiseal said...

Stopped out -1.3577

Don C said...

So...from this point on, go with Andy Xie or Carl Weinberg ?

Btw, congrats on taking 8 big figures in the USD/JPY and hitting it way out of the park in Jan. Phenomenal.

Taichiseal said...

Thanks Don.

No idea. Read them to know both sides of the story. Trade with charts only.