- P&L drawdown of late last week and earlier this week completely reversed tonight. Risk On appears to be ongoing trend, although one's conviction on this might still be severely tested in the days/weeks ahead. Possibility of S&P500 break of weekly uptrend line coming back now to form a right shoulder (before big down) cannot be ruled out. Central view here still for S&P to go on and make new highs this year though.
- USD/CAD short position increased tonight at the close, given the impulsive uptrend line break on the daily chart (anticipating weekly reversal candle as well; if confirmed, will further increase on this Friday close).
- Favor Risk On trades with positive carry (eg long AUD/USD) given sideways to Risk On trend view here (ie not new Risk Off trend yet).
- Observe that long TY now behaving like a hedge against Risk On. Instead of growth slowdown = lower yields + lower commodities, the dynamic has now shifted back to the old Risk On = higher yields. Have been jobbing the -US10YY position nicely here this past week. Time to be buying TY now, towards the SHS neckline at 3.14%. Large positive carry hedge (now at 3.10%) for rest of Risk On book.
No comments:
Post a Comment