- SHS downside objective on US10YY at 2.51%. Low achieved during this rally 2.92%, well short. Thus, expect plenty more to the UST rally.
- Last night's sell-off took us to 3.11%. SHS neckline is at 3.14%. This is the time to build (or re-build) TY longs.
- Long TY is great hedge for Core long Risk On. Positive carry (3.10% vs 0% funding), good technicals. Just have to remember to take profits on the hedge (ie trade it). Because if core Risk On view is correct, there will be lots of sell-off episodes like this latest leg.
- Risk to using long TY hedge vs Core long Risk On = Spike (up) in US rates, large enough to cause interest rate differentials to drive USD up. This scenario on back burner for now, but have to remain alert to the possibility.
2 comments:
What happen to your sell USDCAD positions?
Hi, I am a stranger that regularly stop by your blog. I am contemplating switching to T4L for some time now, 3 years I have watch the screen day and night, 7 days a week, and tried many trading systems. My humble suggestion. try H1 chart, EURUSD, just trade one MA line cross. I am sure given your expertise and experience, you know how to reduce false signals etc. babysit the trade, long screen time, when you recoup your loss, than you can go back to your way of trading.
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