04 May 2011

UST-Bund Spread : Oh Foolish Foolish Boy

  • Tried for ages to sell this but got nowhere fast. In the end got tired of waiting and unlegged the long UST leg, leaving short Bunds naked.
  • Chart now looks like the SHS top has broken for real now.
  • Unsure of what to do here. Do I buy UST to lock in spread at a crap level ? I had thought that the spread would perform under an environment of higher yields. How wrong could I be.
  • In danger of missing the move if spread performs due to UST yields going lower but I just can't bring myself to go long here at 3.25%. This sucks.
  • The only thing that will make me feel better is if both US10YY and EU10YY both rise now. (But already wrong once).
  • Once again, in trouble because I tried to be too clever.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sometimes the hardest trades to put on that the ones that we should.

BH

Taichiseal said...

Yes. Too true.