09 April 2011

Euribors : Another One That Got Away

  • Example of SHS signal that worked beautifully. Unfortunately I missed this completely. In fact, if I am not wrong, this is the first time this year that I am looking at Euribors. In hindsight, it really was gross negligence to have missed this given all the talk about ECB rate hikes.
  • See monthly and weekly charts. Clear SHS top formed and neckline was broken around 9833 in mid-Jan11. Currently we are trading round and about the SHS measured downside objective. Impossible to get short here now. 
  • Watch daily and weekly to see if we get a double bottom to trigger a more prolonged profit taking upmove. Very possible given that 3mth Libor at 1.24% (post ECB hike fix) and FEIZ1 is priced at 2.19%, almost 100 bp higher by year end.
  • Will have to be patient about this. Wait to sell only. Do not buy. Might well be that this was just not meant to be.
  • Must look at Short Sterling too.

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