18 March 2011

USD/JPY : Re-entered Short @ 81.32

Source : MF Global
  • G7 co-ordinated intervention as anticipated, driving this all the way back to the triangle break-point at 81.50. Original triangle objective met and exceeded so can dispense with it now.
  • Reason for going short (round 2) is : expect a lot of volatility ahead, wide trading range likely between 81.50 and 78.00.
  • Addendum (19Mar11) : Estimated intervention amount between Fed ECB BOC and BOJ = USD 40 bio.


Taichiseal said...


Average in-rate short @ 81.38. All set now.

Taichiseal said...

Notes :=

1. Previous G7 co-ordinated intervention in Sep 2000 to support EUR which tumbled in its 2nd after launch.

2. Oct 2008 : G7 only issued statement expressing concern about "excessive volatility" after JPY surged (subprime crisis, carry unwind). No intervention.

3. 15Sep2010 : BOJ unilateral intervention to weaken JPY. Criticised by others.

4. Not necessarily Japan's interest to weaken JPY excessively now due to import requirements for re-construction.

Taichiseal said...

22Sep2000 : Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE + BOC bought EUR. EUR/USD +6.8% in 4Q00.

17Jun98 : Fed + BOJ -USD6 bio/+JPY 6 bio. By end 1998, JPY +20%. In 1999 JPY +11%.

15Aug95, Fed, Buba + BOJ +USD = USD up for next 2 years.

Taichiseal said...

Taken partial profits at 80.61.

Taichiseal said...