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| Source : MF Global |
- G7 co-ordinated intervention as anticipated, driving this all the way back to the triangle break-point at 81.50. Original triangle objective met and exceeded so can dispense with it now.
- Reason for going short (round 2) is : expect a lot of volatility ahead, wide trading range likely between 81.50 and 78.00.
- Addendum (19Mar11) : Estimated intervention amount between Fed ECB BOC and BOJ = USD 40 bio.
5 comments:
-81.45
Average in-rate short @ 81.38. All set now.
Notes :=
1. Previous G7 co-ordinated intervention in Sep 2000 to support EUR which tumbled in its 2nd after launch.
2. Oct 2008 : G7 only issued statement expressing concern about "excessive volatility" after JPY surged (subprime crisis, carry unwind). No intervention.
3. 15Sep2010 : BOJ unilateral intervention to weaken JPY. Criticised by others.
4. Not necessarily Japan's interest to weaken JPY excessively now due to import requirements for re-construction.
22Sep2000 : Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE + BOC bought EUR. EUR/USD +6.8% in 4Q00.
17Jun98 : Fed + BOJ -USD6 bio/+JPY 6 bio. By end 1998, JPY +20%. In 1999 JPY +11%.
15Aug95, Fed, Buba + BOJ +USD = USD up for next 2 years.
Taken partial profits at 80.61.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/boj-yentervention-cost-%C2%A56925-billion
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