18 March 2011

EUR/USD : Target 1.4281

  • Weekly + Daily : Broken free of previous high at 1.4037. Higher highs and higher lows = Uptrend. Targeting next resistance at 1.4281.
  • ECB tightening next month certainly a driver, but has been ever present even thru the recent weakness. So, could today's sudden move be as per ING Research (Russia+Oil), G7 intervention to buy USD/JPY = Sell USD/EUR to diversify part of intervention proceeds?
  • Monthly : Unlike USDX, this is yet to come near to the upside resistance line. So no signal here yet. But I believe we will test this (circa. 1.4350) in due course.
  • Having difficulty hanging on to new trades (eg AUD/JPY and Brent). Taken profits too early. Low on confidence and conviction with new ideas, after huge give-back in P&L due to Japan nuclear worries. Faring better with long held ideas though. P&L recovery underway too.

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