12 March 2011

Benchmarks : Weekly Update

  • Painful week, eased somewhat by price action of last few hours' of NY trading. Squeeze on extreme shorts in USD, flight to USTs on Tokyo earthquake + disappointing jobless claims = my positioning wrong both sides of core and hedge.
  • Million dollar question now is : have Risk On trends been irreversibly damaged by price action of this week eg Copper down 6%? Not sure. But whatever, perhaps reducing risk now is wise, especially given that the NY closing price action has given me a reprieve.
  • USDX : Close at 76.73, below the chart breakpoint of 76.88 (but having squeezed up to 77.38 intra-week. So still negative.
  • US10YY : Still reckon range 15-20 bp either side of 3.57%.
  • S&P500 : Negative week but uptrend looks intact.
  • Gold : Same as S&P. Uptrend intact.
  • Conclusion : Likely the past week's price action = squeeze on extreme positioning only. Trends not changed.

No comments: