12 March 2011

AUD/JPY : Close Shave

  • Had planned to sell this on break of 82.57 (rising wedge).
  • Low today 81.57, made earlier in the day at height of risk aversion (repatriation talk) in midst of reaction to Tokyo earthquake.
  • Normally I would have piled into this on first break. Held back for weekly close because I was suffering on overall core book where everything was going wrong. Got "lucky".
  • This has now bounced and is now at 83.05 (see long tails on weekly and daily charts) ie no sell signal.
  • Thus, still in stalking mode. Likewise for cutting loss on overall Core Book (which is basically positioned Risk On).
  • Good illustration for importance of patience and waiting for signal to be solidly crystallized before acting.

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