03 May 2010

S&P500 : Waiting to See Reaction at 1144

  • Am short tiny ESM0 at 1201.5 average. No convincing technical reason for short, just gut feel and jumping the gun.
  • On monthly and weekly charts, uptrend support line is at 1144 (last Friday close 1186).
  • Weekly candle was a reversal, possibly pointing to a down move to test 1144. What the market does from that point is crucial to the longer term outlook.
  • Until then, don't get too excited and don't over-commit to the short side. Even if TL breaks at that point, it does not mean that the market is going straight down (unless we get a repeat of the EUR/USD 1.4850 style chart development).
  • Waiting game.