03 May 2010

Copper : Internal Conflict

  • Last involvement in this : Long average 356.9, stopped out 351.95 (16Apr10). HGN0 last traded at 322.70.
  • Gut feel : Bearish, especially given China 50 bp RRR hike again and weakness in China+US equities. However, still hesitant to go short, awaiting further chart development to present a more convincing technical reason.
  • Monthly : Apr10 candle was a reversal, as was Jan10 (but look at what happened subsequently - steep rally). The Jan10 false signal is partly what is stopping me from shorting Copper currently.
  • Weekly : Uptrend support line still intact at 322.70. Brave traders would have turned short when it broke below 352.40. Not me; only took action to cut loss but not convinced to somersault short.  Buying near support at 322.70 is what I would have been trying to do if not for the above considerations (China, possible equities reversal, HG monthly bearish reversal).
  • Net net : Uptrends still holding on monthly and weekly timeframes; but internal structure turning less positive. ie Confused. Stay out.

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