25 March 2010

US10YY : Solid Break

  • Missed this big move during system down time yesterday. Original plan was to sell TY on upside break of 3.76%. Failed to execute even though I had the chance. Excuse = busy trying to figure out what to do with disastrous USD/JPY hedge (since cut) and convincing myself to hold onto short USD/CAD + restoring PC.
  • Even though I would normally give the 3.093% break some time to prove itself, it is probably too much to expect that EU10YY will stay low whilst US10YY goes up. Will revisit bunds at a later date. Have managed to lock in a small profit and gone square now. Also cut loss on EDM0/U1 spread as rates environment seem to be turning unfriendly.
  • Monthly : Upside resistance at 3.87% looks like it will be tested in short order.
  • Weekly : As per monthly.
  • Daily : Solid convincing break of triangle upside at 3.76%, where I should have sold TY. Now at 3.85%. Sell rallies in TY.

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