Bunds/USTs : Widening Trend

• Last dabbled in this spread in Nov09 last year around the +11 to +35 region. Since then taken my eye off the ball and missed a nice 50 bp move.
• Not too late to get involved however. Monthly uptrend is firmly underway.
• US10YY : Weekly coiling up into a tighter and tighter triangle. Boundaries at 3.75% and 3.63% (current 3.70%). Mind the break!
• EU10YY : Very top heavy.
• Strategy : Initial outright long Bunds already on board. Add long on EU10YY break of 3.09%. Sell UST against this only if we break out of the US10YY triangle on the upside. Put on the spread trade itself directly only if we get a pullback to the low +50s (now at +58). If not, just leave the spread alone. If US10YY do not break out of the triangle, just go with outright Bunds.
• Addendum 4:40 pm 22Mar10 : Added to Bunds @ 3.09% (low today 3.084%, a fresh low for this move). Do more tonight if we can close < 3.093%.