14 December 2009

Simsci : Early Bear

  • Started shorting this last week at 335.0 (SSGZ9).
  • Monthly : Still positive.
  • Weekly : Broken out of 303/325 congestion zone but has been a damp squib of a rally since. Not convincing at all.
  • Portfolio : If equities still negatively correlated with USD (which I am very long of), then shorting Simsci merely increases my risks marginally. If correlation changed to positive (signs of that of late, especially on NFP + Retail Sales), then position forms a nice hedge to reduce my overall book volatility.
  • Am fine with either case for now. Plan is build on equity short if this turns out to be "lucky" top.
  • Short Nikkei+Simsci = Small percentage of higher USD exposure.
  • Worst case scenario : Equities rally, USD down. I can live with that. Live and die by my own sword.

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