Gold : Anticipating False Breaks

• Much talk about how gold is best defensive option against current debasement of fiat currencies by Govts.
• Charts sounding warning to gold bugs not to be complacent. Potential gold sell signal being formed now on monthly charts. However, there are 3 more weeks' trading for Dec09 so signals are not confirmed yet. A lot could change in the meantime. Caution is warranted though.
  
• The accompanying monthly charts of Gold vs USD, EUR, GBP and JPY all flashing early warning of possible reversal candlesticks forming for Dec09.
• Also, XAU/EUR, XAU/GBP and XAU/JPY all broken above previous highs but now re-entered back below = signaling potential false break ie very bearish.
• The 2nd set of charts = weeklies. Already bearish signals confirmed by evening stars on all gold crosses.
• Presumably, lots of long positions established in the recent run-up as well. Time is ripe for a squeeze?
• This is largely one and the same as the "short USD" reversal trade. Commodities trades which were put on as anti-USD (gold, oil) would suffer most. Others eg industrial metals such as copper would not be as badly hit (especially if reason for higher USD is due to anticipated higher rates due to stronger growth). Perhaps a relative value trade (short Gold/long Copper) suggested by this but establishing the correct hedge ratio is problematic.