Finally in the plus for the month. Been tough going with too many bad calls based on anticipated Risk Off and poor timing on others that were in line with ongoing chart trends.- Short Copper : Last 277. Expect test of UpTL at 256 first.
- Short USD/CAD : Last 1.0748. 1.0630 remains trigger for further weakness but already sold at this low level so no further action.
- Short GBP/USD : Last 1.6205. SHS top remains firmly in play. This has been a very difficult trade but then, most of the good ones are. This is potentially a 10 big figure trade if we manage to break 1.6160 (weekly closing basis!).
- -Bunds/+UST spread : Last +8. Slow grind. Chart pointing to -20.
- Short ED_M0/Z0 spread : Last +80.5. As per cable, forming right shoulder. Judgment call is that this should eventually narrow to 50+. NL at +73.5.
- Long Gold : Last 1013.5. Triangle breakout is holding. Target at 1108 remains valid.
- Trades require enormous patience and holding power.
- USD Index + Copper losses adequately covered by Gold+Cable. All other positions are around breakeven or thereabouts.
24 September 2009
Open Trades : Update
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5 comments:
Am reading up on your recent posts on ED, Bunds/TY spreads and cable, as well as your Thoughts on Current Markets: ("Watch Rates like a hawk and do not miss its signals.
Other markets are noise and obscuring the real picture.")
And trying to relate it all+possible scenarios to your current Book/positioning.
But am getting a little headache now...So will take your advice in the last post, "Simple is best. Charts only. No need to think too much."
:)
Still, the positioning in the Rates complex (via spreads to reduce risk/volatility?) and essentially Cable is interesting.
Part of me is musing how the volatility correlations here (lead/lag/magnitude) might play out.
The risk sizing here must be quite a challenge.
Don
Yes. Simple is best. I tend to get carried away.
This new blog is about me recording my own thoughts about my own trading and positions. Not meant to be advice to anyone.
Recent months have been rough, Don.
TS, I can imagine.
[The slow summer months of grinding low-vol has probably been even tougher for shorter-term traders -- if size was not reduced accordingly, can get chopped up pretty quickly.
The low-vol "melt-up" in equities also offered few chances for ST trades.]
Good news is that summer's over, activity's back in almost all markets.
I actually like your posts with the reasoning behind your decisions+intentions; its a chance to hear from your experience in interbank rates trading.
Like the "positive carry on short position" in the ED spread. Having the wind on your back cannot be a bad thing.
Traditional Money Market Traders are 1-trick ponies. Only know how to average bad positions and never learnt to cut losses. Beware!
That's the difference between trading OPM and T4L.
:)
Thanks for the heads-up.
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