28 June 2016

EUR/USD : Better Short Than Cable

  • Attached EUR/USD long term (monthly) chart. Very bearish formation, mega top formed, neckline (1.2120) broken, currently in a triangle consolidation holding pattern, awaiting developments to drive an eventual downside break towards the historical all time lows. Yuuuge trade in the making.
  • Chart is telling me that Brexit spillover effects (into EU) will be bigger than Brexit itself. Selling cable itself is not necessarily the best Brexit trade in the longer term. Shorting EUR/USD will be the better trade eventually.
  • Triangle boundaries for this month are at appx 1.16 and 1.06. Would appear to be quite a few more months before a triangle breakout trade occurs. Must monitor this.
  • EUR/GBP chart does not suggest the above conclusion .. yet. 

No comments: