- Sacrificed much of last night's CL football to listen to Yellen's press conference. Bottom line : Timeline to rate hikes non-mechanical, data dependent. Which begs the question - why bother to leave the "considerable time" in? When markets were fragile, it made sense to provide comfort and reassurance but those days are since long over. After the usual initial knee jerk (eg EDZ6 97-91.5 high, TYZ4 124-20 high on seeing the "considerable time" left in the FOMC statement), rates markets collectively voted "hawkish" as indicated by the weak end of day closes.
- Weekly and daily charts now firmly in bearish mode (barring a strong reversal into the weekend). Might see some support at previous significant low at 97-73, but my expectation is that this will give way and lead to a test of 97-50 on the next NFP release (Exp. reversion to >+200k).
- Mighty glad not to have been shaken out of existing positions (-EDZ6, -TYZ4 and +USD/-CAD) last night. Purely due to strict discipline in NOT increasing positions earlier in the week. Must stick to that.
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