- Monthly : Big triangle breakout at 1.5610 from Feb13 still valid. Subsequent rally from low of 1.4830 all the way up to high of 1.5605 must surely be viewed as the requisite pullback towards the breakline. No damage to the triangle call. The rally seems now to have exhausted itself and ready to attempt the triangle prediction. Recall - downside objective at 1.2380.
- Weekly : The long sideways rectangular band between 1.6308 and 1.5230 was broken below around 18Feb13. Having caught the downleg from 1.56 in size X, my fatal mistake was to increase risk to multiples of X on the pullback towards 1.5230. The penetration back above 1.5230 killed me and wiped out a large part of my YTD profits. This week, we closed at 1.5168, back below the lower rectangle band = sell signal. On symmetry, rectangle downside target 1.4150.
- Daily : Bear flag. Downside break made. Close at 1.5168 is a new low on this leg = sell.
- Trade : Doubled the short cable position last night towards the NY close. Initial short at -1.5244. Addition -1.5168. After pyramiding, risk is still relatively small at only 9%, so plenty of room to increase. Reminding myself not to get carried away and restrict to <25%. Avoid concentration risk although realistically, have already failed there with entire book (62%) one way being derivatives of long USD. Extra caution warranted. I have limit orders to take some profits in Gold below though; if filled, should be of great help towards getting risk under control.
- P&L situation looking good again.
6 comments:
Trade updates (18-21May13) :=
-1.5244 (1)
-1.5166 (1)
+1.5240 (1)
-1.5248 (1)
-1.5148 (1)
+1.5088 (1)
-1.5155 (2)
after Bernanke warns "premature tightening of monetary policy also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further"
+1.5044 (1)
+1.5022 (1)
Locking in profits. Excellent run.
-1.5111 (2x)
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