02 April 2013

Corn : Opportunity Cost of Sterling Elephant

  • Shorting corn was one of the trades I have been following very closely. In fact was short and stopped out in early Mar. Since then, I had been trying to get back in and would have sold above 730 in anticipation of the top of a triangle consolidation. [Now 645].
  • What stopped me was my laser focus on my cable elephant trade which had turned sour. [2nd go at breaking 1.5260 today. My feeling is if this holds after x attempts, we will go down HARD!].
  • Opportunity cost : Missed at least a fast and furious 10% down move in Corn. Lovely chart. Shame about my position (=no position).
  • Back to the question I have been mulling the past month. Go for the occasional jugular (=home runs)? Or treat all trades equal and don't play favorites (=grind out positive results)? At the moment, one of the solutions I am thinking is perhaps to increase my initial (fishing) and subsequent pyramiding bets, but never reaching elephant size. That way, the singles get more rewarding when they work. Net = still no home runs but the grind gets easier. Downside = losses on bad trades bigger too.
  • PS : I think x will NOT be >3.

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