26 March 2013

USD/JPY : Not Time to Buy Yet

  • Some clarity after price action of the past few weeks. Time for a closer examination of the charts and perhaps draw up a new plan.
  • Monthly : No change. Still up.
  • Weekly : Parabolic rise conditions have NOT been eased in spite of recent seemingly violent correction. Notice how far price is still divergent from MA. Would take a deeper correction before I am willing to plunge in again.
  • Daily : A=C correction would take us down to 92.45 [0=96.70, A=93.02, B=96.13]. Another possibility is a triangle being formed. If the latter, we will have plenty of time to position for the upside break.
  • Reckon we can trade down to between 90.85 (=25Feb13 spike low) and 92.45 and still call this an uptrend. Upside progress is going to be difficult whilst EUR/JPY remains under pressure from EU deposit confiscation fears (Diesel Bomb Template).
  • In the absence of a deeper correction, longs will always feel like a vertical climb without a safety net below, subject to sharp plunges every now and then. In which case, I do not want to play.
  • Trade : Space out below, far apart, small bids between 92.45 and 90.85. [=my contribution to building of the aforementioned safety net].

1 comment:

Taichiseal said...

Note to self :=

As of 26Mar13, cash to futures equivalents are as follows :=

92.45 = JYM3 0.010821
90.85 = JYM3 0.011012