25 March 2013

GBP/USD : Daylight ?

  • Preliminary signs of the rally running out of steam but still need confirmation (looking hopeful).
  • Daily : A big red candle for today would be a good first sign. Another red candle tomorrow would be even better.
  • Weekly : Between 1.5230/1.5260 is a band of strong resistance. Looks like first attempt (1.5266 high early today, on Cyprus "resolution") to penetrate has failed. Unsure how many more times we might yet try. Too early to sound the all clear yet.
  • Monthly : Triangle still good. Stay long term bearish.
  • One frustrating aspect of my trading thus far has been to consistently fail whenever I finally decide it is time "go for the jugular". I am all too familiar with the pattern of making money on regular sized positions or even decently out-sized ones (eg JPY in Jan, GBP in Feb), and then when I think the charts are aligned for me to go for broke, it fails me eg last week in cable (BOE stuck at 6-3). To date, I have not succeeded in a single go for jugular trade yet. Am I that bad?
  • Improvement this time over previous is that I am managing my money and risk much better. Whilst in the past, I would have been cutting my positions this morning when I should be adding, this time I am holding instead of cutting. Have ensured that if I do get stopped out, I will be down to just exceeding ytd budget (from way above) instead of going below. So, some signs of progress in my trading, I guess.
  • Gotten out of all my "frills" trades (eg ED). Potential trading crisis time so NO distractions. Just Copper and Cable only, the 2 best looking charts I see. Only outstanding order I have is to sell Apple (CFD) near the NL, and maybe do some day trading when good opportunities arise.

No comments: