14 February 2013

USD/JPY : Dilemma + Thoughts

  • 15Nov12 : Initiated very first long @ 81.08.
  • 29Jan13 : Very last trade - trailing profit stop taken out at 90.50.
  • Game plan : Trade the weekly inverse SHS, target 92.45. Stuck it out to completion (proud to say!).
  • Lost now, without a plan. After 90.50 stop, I just did not have the heart to re-enter the long trade and have been watching it helplessly from the sidelines to the new high of 94.45.
  • Have experienced first hand many times the dangers of over-staying parabolic charts (eg see Corn mid 2008) like the JPY weekly we are seeing now. Believe also that 1-sided market positioning and risk/reward might now favor shorting over going long.
  • Monthly : 94.98 offers a useful resistance reference point. Contemplating selling the next new high above 94.45 against this. Have to be ultra-cautious and disciplined going against the trend though. Timing and entry level is everything.

No comments: