11 January 2013

EUR/USD : Jump !!!

  • Finally threw in the towel. All that dicking around trying to save pennies by trying to work into a long position at a better price has cost me 2.5 big figures in terms of opportunity cost.
  • All this while, my central thesis is the inverse SHS, which I expect to take us to 1.4269. Unforgivable mistake to be without even a tiny position for this. Really stupid considering how close we got to the neckline.
  • "I don't care, just get me in" buy stop-in @ 1.3300 order just triggered.
  • This is prime eg of the increased Type 1 errors (= trending, no position because got stopped out) I had expected from my trading style tweaking. [Type 2 error = non-trending, hanging on to position and getting whipped]. A further re-think is required. Perhaps run a tiny core with large stop loss alongside a bigger core with disciplined tight stops when faced with this kind of situation in future. A mix of "loose and easy" with "tight and disciplined".