24 October 2012

Gold : US$250 Trading Range

  • Everyone's favorite QEx trade, long Gold. However, price action of past 3 weeks suggests rally has run out of steam.
  • Weekly : Strong triple resistance around US$1790. A return to US$1600/1550 on the cards now.
  • My view : firmer USD (gold range top made), higher US rates (TYZ2 < 132 confirms), lower equities (S&P500 < 1420 confirms). Never did agree with QE repeat ad nauseum in the first place. Admit wrong if gold breaks triple top.
  • Early days on the bear trade in US bonds yet. Right now, it is still equities down = bonds up. Expect this behavior to reverse in due course, with rates the driver.

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