04 September 2012

S&P500 : Possible Top?

  • Put aside promises of QE3, look purely at the chart pattern.
  • Trend is up on all time frames.
  • However, it might be worthwhile to attempt to pick a top against a 1426 stop.
  • Monthly : Mature uptrend? 
  • Weekly : Potential for a double top. Risk/reward of short more attractive than long.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi TS,
Here's my 2c worth ...
I prefer to look at daily + 4hrly mainly, not monthly since the range in monthly is too large, so moves are already well underway when we see a monthly signal.
All timeframes trend is up. Weekly there is no indication of a top, only consolidation. The daily shows a congestion zone after a move up, but still well away from the up-trend line. The 4hrly shows the congestion zone more clearly. On the daily, it has not retraced even 50% of its recent swing up, so it's in the bullish zone.
All in all, very little reason to short. Maybe range trade between 1426 - 1390, but not a good risk to go short. I think it would be better to go long near 1390 with a stop just below the 50% of the last swing up.
As I said, just my 2c worth! All the best.