30 August 2012

EUR/USD : Detached View

  • Appears to be trapped between the 2 lines drawn on the longer term weekly chart (inset).
  • Above = SHS top NL @ 1.2645
  • Below = Support line @ 1.1988
  • Up leg from 1.2040 to current levels around 1.25/1.26 can be interpreted as a pullback to the NL of the SHS top.
  • Shorting near 1.26 against 1.2645 stop and 1.1988 target makes good risk/reward sense (even without the SHS top consideration).
  • No trading here. Purely theoretical post.

1 comment:

Don C said...

Hi TS,

Thanks for the article on Pettis' views. Kinda missed reading him since he started his private newsletter subscriptions.

Am ambivalent (though mostly agree) about his overall thesis on the possibility of 3% GDP growth for China, and the massive swing towards consumption-led rebalancing needed in the Chinese economy (which he has harped on for years now).

Part of me would love for his scenario to pan out, just to have some deep lasting trends to start running in markets, commodities and otherwise (I'm guessing you are too?).

But another part of me is slightly wary of what that would mean for our larger invested secular assets. It would be ironic (and costly!) for our trading accounts to profit from a sustained bear run, only to be giving it all back and more, in the other more passive and longer term parts of the NW portfolio, if left unhedged.

I guess all of this can be simplified down to the struggle between two major forces; one described by Faber after Bernanke's unleashing of QE3, and the other by Pettis above of the inevitable slowing and rebalancing turn in China.

Interesting times...