08 July 2012

EUR/USD : Weekly SHS Top

  • Let your imagination run free and explore the possibilities. Imagine the unimaginable.
  • Nice symmetrical SHS pattern on EUR/USD weekly.
  • Head @ 1.4939
  • Neckline @ 1.2635
  • Measured size of downside move = 0.2304
  • ie Downside Objective = 1.0331
  • So calls for parity (such as this) are really not as absurd or outrageous as might first appear. After all, we have been down to as low as 0.8226 in Oct00 and as high as 1.6037 in Jul08.
  • The move from the end May12 low of 1.2287 to the mid Jun12 high of 1.2747 can be considered a proper test of the neckline. Now that that's over and done with, and we are back to new lows, we "should" see the SHS top deliver rewards on the downside.
  • The 2nd chart here is the top heavy monthly chart with Fibonacci levels drawn in. 50% = 1.2132 and 62% = 1.1210.
  • [Caveat : The obvious ones tend not to work! Don't over-invest in this]

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I've been stalking this SHS too, its a great formation and the test of the neckline at 1.27 last week was text-book perfect. My count makes the measured move down to 1.09 minimum, I think we are very likely to see this or lower levels later this year.
Pandu

Taichiseal said...

Yes. The thing about these "nice" patterns is that you have to treat it as just another trade, stick to same risk controls as normal and not get overly attached. Otherwise its the surest way to run into trouble.