- In previous bouts of Risk Off, EUR/JPY used to be a double whammy ie both EUR/USD and USD/JPY down simultaneoulsy. This time however, it seems to be a real case of USD strength. Thus, while EUR/USD is soft, USD/JPY has been holding its own and is in fact, a touch firmer.
- Original game plan here was to buy USD/JPY near to 78.30 = mid Feb12 range breakout point. Adding a long USD/JPY to core Risk Off book protects the latter from periodic bouts of Risk On rallies in the overall context of a longer term Risk Off.
- Will assume here that last Friday's low of 79.42 is probably the lows of this move, and have to revise 78.30 entry upwards accordingly (79.60?).
- Clearly, hedge idea falls apart if USD weakness arise. Going in with eyes wide open to this risk. [My feeling is that it is unlikely that we get a Risk On scenario with USD/JPY going down though].
1 comment:
Limit order to buy USD/JPY at 79.73 filled.
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