19 April 2012

USD/JPY : Waiting to Go Long

  • Missed 2 huge buy signals (upside breaks of 78.30 and 79.60) while I was getting bashed up elsewhere like a headless chicken earlier in the year.
  • Monthly downtrend looks broken.
  • Had been hoping for a deeper pullback (see daily bear flag) below 80.00 for a good long entry. Looks like I am not going to get it now (last 81.68).
  • No reason to chase this higher though. My current thinking is that we will go into a trading range to form a triangle on the weekly chart, much like that of Nov10-Mar11.
  • Plan now is to buy first dip back below 81.00. If I don't get that chance, so be it.
  • Inclusion of a long USD/JPY position would reduce core book Risk On/Off volatility (book is currently very Risk Off skewed).

1 comment:

sam said...

base on D1 chart, EURUSD might move north again next week.