- On 06Sep11 when SNB implemented the 1.20 peg, market shot up10 big figures from around 1.10 to above 1.20 almost instantaneously., leaving a price vacuum which we should theoretically come back to at least partially fill.
- Since the peg announcement, price has traded within a rectangular band roughly between 1.2120 and 1.2470.
- The past few days we have a confirmed downside break of the rectangle. Now trading at 1.2080. Technical downside objective is at 1.1730. If not already short, sell any pullbacks towards 1.2120.
- Chart is telling me markets want to challenge the SNB in the days/weeks ahead. Perhaps due to serious downside pressure on the EUR which the SNB alone cannot stem.
- Slight care on positioning. No longer correct to diversify book into a general Risk Off pool. This is a EUR-centric move. Shorting US equities, Copper etc will not work.
No comments:
Post a Comment