20 January 2012

Core Book : Bullets Spent

  • Managed to cover some short EUR/USD at 1.2633 and 1.2666 last week, but nowhere near enough to prevent feeling pain in this short squeeze. 
  • Also increased cable short near the lows of last week's move = caught by false break again.
  • Took profit on short USD/CHF ie back to EUR/USD short only, no more EUR/CHF.
  • Bullets spent so can only watch from sidelines with what I deem to be the right sized position ie no panic induced when regular 200-300 pip squeezes occur (all too often these days).
  • I do not see a downtrend reversal from the charts. The skill is in correct sizing to keep right position intact through the noise. Not easy. When wrong, any position is too large. When right, no position is large enough.
  • Dilemma : Recent price action has made it wrong to pyramid when in the money (violating rule 8 = profitable) and right to add to losers (violating rule 9 = profitable). However, must not be sucked into believing this and change long held beliefs. Rule violations and resulting profitability is only a temporary state of affairs. Sooner or later, we will revert to the old and one fine day, adding to losers will blow you up.

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