Gold : SNB Fallout

• SNB peg commitment killing safe haven status of CHF. Would have expected other safe havens eg Gold and JPY to rally on substitution demand. But no, both are weaker after SNB announcement. Even EUR a lot softer as well (even though SNB is supposed to be defending EUR/CHF floor).
• Possible explanation : Dumping of long CHF = large scale buying of USD, thus putting pressure on all the counter-instruments, including Gold.
• Whatever the case, technical traders are not supposed to be trading on logic. Price action over-rides all else.
• Monthly : Still positive in spite of recent volatility. Only the large divergence between price and moving averages is signalling caution.
• Weekly : As per monthly.
• Daily : Only on this lowest time frame is change being flagged. The probability of a double top here is getting higher. Trend reversal is not confirmed until we get below say, 1750, by which time the weekly and monthly would be telling a very different story.
• Awaiting daily price action to change outlook for the higher time frame charts. Until then, holding onto small speculative short at 1893 and NOT increasing position.
• Personally, I think the SNB is playing with fire by drawing a line in the sand. High risk move, although it is of course much harder for speculators to take on a central bank intent on weakening its own currency rather than other way round.