05 September 2011

CAD/USD : A Different Perspective

  • Have plotted CAD/USD here instead of the usual USD/CAD.
  • Long CAD is (?) one of the most crowded Risk On trades around, and is thus my favored early vehicle for expressing the possibility of a USD bottom. [Clearly gold is the most crowded of them all but shorting Gold is too scary a prospect].
  • Monthly : Uptrend line and significant previous top nearby, coinciding at around 1.0069, vs current level at 1.0134. Expect the support point to be tested soon.
  • Weekly : Double top around 1.0600 (= USD/CAD double bottom at 0.94). Neckline currently being tested.
  • Daily : Bear flag. Downside price action should intensify once we break 1.0117 (ie USD/CAD break 0.9884 on the upside).
  • Whichever way I look at it, these charts all favor being short CAD/long USD rather than other way round.
  • Trade : Was early buying USD/CAD in tiny at 0.9890. But still in, and awaiting next signal for market to prove me right and then, will increase trade size.

1 comment:

Taichiseal said...

Added to long USD/CAD at 0.9884