19 August 2011

USD/CAD : Paradigm Shift ?

  • Here's a clean (line chart) look at USD/CAD monthly. Plotting close only filters out intra-month noise like the Nov07 extreme low of 0.9056.
  • One possible interpretation is a double bottom near 0.9400 (2 points at 0.9436 and 0.9402).
  • This squares up with the fear of global recession now driving all markets. If true, CAD gets hit doubly hard due to its large exposure to commodities and US (>3/4 of exports).
  • On the regular weekly candle chart, a double bottom is formed if we close in NY tonight above 0.9913.
  • Is it time to change from selling rallies to buying dips in USD/CAD ?

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