- Forcing myself to continue blogging/looking at markets, with a heavy heart. The few hours from mid-NY session on Monday (post S&P US downgrade) to early Far East trading hours on Tuesday were brutal for me.
- Firm believer of Risk On (eg short USD/CAD), but substantially hedged by being long TY (from 3.00%) until last week when I took off the entire hedge on the first dip in US10YY below 2.60%. 2nd biggest mistake of my T4L life. (Biggest = T4LY1, adding onto out-of-money long Nikke into dips, which subsequently turned out to be new downtrend).
- Without the P&L volatility dampener of the long TY position, I found that I was unable to sit through the whipsaw of those crucial few hours. Stopped out of everything given substantial drawdown.
- In hindsight, was foolish of me to unwind the hedge given the inherent positive carry and the fact that the rest of the Core Book was heavily skewed towards Risk On.
- Now, monthly US10YY chart shows either triangle continuation on downside (a la Japan in the 90s), or double bottom at 2.04%. Too early to tell which yet. Inclination now is to buy TY at 2.33% and 2.48% if we see those levels again.
2 comments:
Hi TS,
Welcome back. I thought you were coming back Aug 10/11, so just checked in today. Sorry to hear about your big loss, that's the hard part of a trader's life.
I have started Live blogging of my trades, showing the results in a model account. I actually carry out those trades in my personal account and put them on the blog as soon as I do them, without much commentary. I find that not adding commentary at least means I am prompt about keeping the blog up-to-date. I also noticed that since I started blogging this way I have become very disciplined in my trading. I only take the A-1 trade setups. About 20% up in 2 weeks. Let's see how it goes for the next few months. You can check it out here:
www.zenfxtrader.wordpress.com
Also on twitter @ zenfxtrades
I welcome your suggestions or ideas for improvements!
Pandu
Hi TS,
Hanging in there. Markets rough.
Ryan
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