- Central thesis here remains weak USD. Figured going long Gold is best vehicle to express that view.
- EUR has PGS risks. GBP economy wobbly. USD/JPY behaves counter-intuitive due to risk function. AUD+CAD highly geared to commodity cycle. If growth slows, these pairs will suffer most vs USD. As per commodities, like Copper.
- In addition to being good proxy for anti-USD, Gold has tailwind of ongoing central bank reserve demand. Also, if growth slows, QE3 speculation will be good for gold. If growth accelerates, inflation fears will come back.
- Technicals - monthly has remained positive throughout recent shake out. Weekly feels like trying to base-build around current levels. 1462 and 1472 lows may be the lows of the pull-back.
- Long GCQ1 here. Building up slowly.
No comments:
Post a Comment