- A dollar in decline shall remain so unless acted upon by an unbalanced external force.
- Possible external force = Fed rate hikes but Bernanke just said no chance (yet). Other possibilities eg a flight to quality black swan event. But Japan nuclear disaster disproved that. USD no longer regarded as safe haven. What else can rescue the USD? Not much.
- Month end today. Triangle downside break almost certainly confirmed. Would take a miracle rally of large magnitude to rescue the USD (by NY close tonight) and negate the almost confirmed chart sell signal now. This will be 2nd consecutive monthly close below the triangle line (at 76.26). 57 here we come.
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