Short Sterling : Struggling to find a Trade

• Follow up on Euribor post about missing a good trade.
• 3mth GBP Libor = 0.82%. FSSZ1 (98.57) = 1.43% ie pricing in Libor increase of 61 bp. Current Base Rate at 0.50% (since 05Mar09). Current Libor is already steep relative to Base Rate. In other words, quite a lot being priced into curve so is clearly NOT a no brainer trade.
• Chart likewise. Monthly looks like it has turned down, but at current price, is not a compelling sell level. Weekly and daily says nothing to me.
• BOE should be next major central bank to hike rates so there is a trade in here somewhere. Just that large negative convergence to Libor makes timing this correctly more important than usual.
• Trade : Reckon it does not make sense to sell too far below 98.76 (chart). On the other hand, do not think we will get a chance to sell too near 98.76. Tricky balance. Have to be very patient with this.